Market analyst Jupiter Media Metrix reported Monday that despite mass-market barriers of geography and technology, interactive television (iTV) will grow more than 80 percent per year over the next four years, to reach 46 million U.S. homes by 2005. Jupiter analysts, who based their forecasts on consumer and executive surveys and interviews, say that despite an open market for interactive television the companies that invest in and experiment with it now will benefit most. At the same time, Jupiter predicts, there will be no clear middleware platform for iTV because infrastructure and technology will develop independently by region, and the companies behind iTV will advance on different schedules.

Jupiter analyst Lydia Loizides told NewsFactor Network that while iTV will be a viable platform for developers, programmers and advertisers, the backers of interactive television will have different agendas and technologies.

"Each operation with interactive will have different strategies, schedules and applications," Loizides said. "You'll get these variances across the (United States), across cable and satellite, and across all of the different networks capable of delivering this interaction."

Jupiter predicts that the U.S. will lead the world in iTV penetration, with the UK, Germany and Sweden keeping pace. Cable delivery of iTV will surpass satellite by 2005, but programmers and advertisers must consider both, according to Jupiter.

Loizides told NewsFactor that the different middleware providers, such as Microsoft TV, Liberate, OpenTV and Power TV, already offer a range of advantages and disadvantages and are often used in combination, depending on the place and the program. "People are developing relationships with the middleware guys based on specific targets, not their entire audience." Loizides said. "It's not like the PC. It's not a Windows world. It's very base."

"The interactive portion is very new, but the medium is very old," she said. "Programmers and advertisers looking to target the iTV audience must understand what can be delivered by cable or satellite and plan their initiatives accordingly."

Jupiter advises that iTV programmers continue investing in interactive-friendly areas such as sports, game shows and news, adding that interactivity in drama and comedy venues will be more difficult.

"There's a lot to be learned in terms of experimenting while the costs are lower," she said. "Once this market reaches maturity and stabilizes, overall higher entry costs will penalize late entrants. It's time to learn ...by dabbling with interactive to see what works and what doesn't."