Umematsu, T., Sano, A., and Picard, R. "Daytime Data and LSTM can Forecast Tomorrow's Stress, Health, and Happiness," the 41st International Engineering in Medicine and Biology Conference (EMBC), p.2186-2190, Berlin, July 2019.

Abstract

Accurately forecasting well-being may enable people to make desirable behavioral changes that could improve their future well-being. In this paper, we evaluate how well an automated model can forecast the next-day's well-being (specifically focusing on stress, health, and happiness) from static models (support vector machine and logistic regression) and time-series models (long short-term memory neural network models (LSTM)) using the previous seven days of physiological, mobile phone, and behavioral survey data. We especially examine how using only a portion of the day's data (e.g. just night-time, or just daytime) influences the forecasting accuracy. The results show that accuracy is improved, across every condition tested, by using an LSTM instead of using static models. We find that daytime-only physiology data from wearable sensors, using an LSTM, can provide an accurate forecast of tomorrow's well-being using students' daily life data (stress: 80.4%, health: 86.0%, and happiness: 79.1%), achieving the same accuracy as using data collected from around the clock. These findings are valuable steps toward developing a practical and convenient well-being forecasting system.