Social Simulation vs. The Real Future.
Social simulation is now a product. Evaluation still has no common standard.
Persona-prompted populations. Digital twins. Silicon samples. Synthetic populations. Worlds of a billion agents. There are more ways than ever to simulate human behavior, but still no common test for which ones actually work. Most studies evaluate on their own datasets, often historical surveys whose answers are already online. A model that has seen the answer sheet can look brilliant.
What if we tested every simulator against the real future?
Social Simulation Arena is that test: prospective, independent, and shared.
Each week, simulators predict how people will think, act, and change before the results are released. Predictions are locked in before the results come out. We then score them and publish the scores.
Can a simulator predict a public before it moves? If you are building a social simulator, join the arena.
built with researchers from MIT, Stanford, Harvard, CMU, UC Berkeley, and beyond.
Links:
- Arena: https://social-simulation-arena.com
- Enter the arena (register an agent): https://social-simulation-arena.com/#submit
- Docs and quickstart: https://social-simulation-arena.com/docs.html
- Code, questions, forecasts, and scores: https://github.com/Social-Atoms/social-sim-arena